NFC North Betting Preview – 4 Best Bets For The 2022 Season

The NFC North is one of the most interesting divisions in the NFL right now. The division has two new coaches this season and is home to the back-to-back NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers. The Green Bay Packers have been dominant in the North over the past three years with three straight division titles to their name.

Once again the Packers are strong favourites to continue their NFC North supremacy but the Minnesota Vikings look like they could be well positioned to push the Packers all the way this year for the division crown.

NFC North Betting Odds

Chicago Bears

2021 Record: 6-11

Division Odds: 12/1

Over/Under This Season: 6.5

Key Players: QB Justin Fields | LB Roquan Smith | HB David Montgomery

Fields Key To Bears Success

The big question surrounding the Chicago Bears going into this season is how QB Justin Fields will perform. Fields was Chicago’s first round pick last year and is now going into his second year which is a pivotal year in the development of young quarterbacks. Typically, if a QB is going to be a franchise level player they show signs of reaching these heights during their second year in the league.

Fields flashed signs of promise last year thanks in large part to his impressive athleticism. The issue was that when he was asked to play in structure and from the pocket, the former Ohio State QB struggled. As a result, Chicago’s decision makers will have question marks about if Fields is the right man to lead the franchise to contender status.

It is difficult to determine from last year how good Fields can be as he was surrounded by dysfunction from the top to the bottom within the Bears organisation.

New Coach And Management In Chicago

Fields’ case isn’t helped by the fact that he was a draft pick of the previous regime so this front office and coach have little invested in his success on the football field. It is hard to see how Fields is in a much better position going into this season as the front office have done very little to surround him with talent on the offensive side of the ball.

Usually a young quarterback will be paired with an offensive minded head coach to help them develop early in their career. This was the expectation around league circles when Chicago was looking for a head coach this offseason but they bucked that trend and decided to go with a defensive minded coach instead. This calls into question how much faith the franchise has in Fields being their QB of the future.

Lacklustre Roster

It feels like Chicago’s young QB is once again being set up to fail. From my point of view it seems as if the new front office and coach wouldn’t mind finishing this season with a bad record so they can get their pick of the best quarterbacks at the top of next year’s draft class.

Due to a lack of roster talent and an unwillingness to help Justin Fields I expect the Chicago Bears to be among the worst teams in the league this year so I am picking the under on their season win total here.

Prediction: Chicago Bears Under 6.5 Wins @ 8/13

Detroit Lions

2021 Record: 3-13-1

Division Odds: 8/1

Over/Under This Season: 6.5

Key Players: QB Jared Goff | TE T.J. Hockenson | RT Penei Sewell

Goff Among Bottom Tier Of League QBs

The Detroit Lions have been one of the least successful teams in the NFL over the last decade. Unfortunately for Lions fans this doesn’t look like changing anytime soon. They enter the season with one of the worst starting QBs in the league, Jared Goff, conducting their offense. This point was never more clear than when Goff’s old team, the LA Rams, went on to win the Super Bowl in their first season without Goff at the quarterback position.

The standard of QB in the NFL is higher now than ever before so Goff isn’t a complete disaster, but in almost every game the Lions go into they will be at a disadvantage at the QB position.

Room For Optimism

If you want to look on the optimistic side for Detroit you would point to their rookie first round draft pick Aidan Hutchinson. Hutchinson, the immensely talented Defensive End out of Michigan, was selected #2 overall by the Lions in April’s draft. The Lions can count themselves very fortunate that the Michigan DE fell to them at #2 as he was the consensus best player in the draft among analysts.

In recent years, we have seen highly touted DEs make an immediate impact in the NFL in their rookie year. Examples of this include Nick Bosa, T.J. Watt and Chase Young. If the Lions are to have any success on the defensive side of the ball then they are going to need Hutchinson to hit the ground running from early on.

Eccentric Coach Dan Campbell

The Lions are coached by Dan Campbell who employs a more old-fashioned, ‘ra-ra’ type of coaching style. Campbell is going into his second year with the team in 2022. Detroit’s record last season was very poor as they finished with the second worst record in the league after a 3-13-1 season.

Campbell managed to keep the locker room on his side despite the disappointing record which is a credit to his leadership. However, if the Lions start off this season poorly then the players might begin to tune him out.

More Disappointment Ahead For Lions

Apart from young stud linemen like Hutchinson on defense and Penei Sewell on the offensive line, there is little to get excited about for Lions fans. A quick overview of the roster shows that they are very talent poor across the board and it’s likely that they will struggle to overcome this talent deficit during the NFL season. Due to their lack of talent.

I predict that the Detroit Lions will go under their season total of 6.5 wins. I don’t see any value in betting the Lions in the division market for the same reason either.

Prediction: Detroit Lions under 6.5 wins

Green Bay Packers

2021 Record: 13-4

Division Odds: 8/15

Over/Under This Season: 10.5

Key Players: QB Aaron Rodgers | CB Jaire Alexander | LB De’Vondre Campbell

Recent Divisional Dominance

The Packers are the heavy betting favourites to land yet another NFC North divisional title at odds of 8/15. If they can pull it off, it would extend their streak of divisional titles to four in a row. Green Bay have been impressive on their way to winning three straight division crowns too. They have managed to win 13 games each of those years and in two of those three years they finished the regular season as the NFC’s #1 seed.

So, how have the Packers been so dominant in the regular season in recent years? The answer to that is simple; Aaron Rodgers. The often eccentric quarter-back has been key to everything that the Packers do on the field. When Rodgers plays well then the Packers are a very tough team to beat. And he has played exceptionally well over the last two seasons. Proof of this are the back-to-back MVPs he was awarded for his regular season performances in 2020 and 2021.

Loss Of League’s Best Receiver Major Blow

After three straight 13-win seasons, you might wonder why the Packers regular season win total is set as low as 10.5 for the upcoming season. Well, a key contributor to their lower expected win total this year is the loss of All-Pro wide receiver Davante Adams who was traded to Las Vegas during the offseason. Adams was by far Rodgers’ favourite target and the focal point of the Packers offense.

Defenses designed their schemes around stopping Adams. He really was unguardable in single coverage and this allowed the other players in the offense to flourish as opportunities opened up when the defense focused their attention on Adams.

The biggest complaint among Packers fans has not been letting go of Adams but rather how little the front office have done to add to the receiver group to replace his production.

Reliance On Young Unproven Receivers

While Green Bay did add Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs during the draft, it is a risky bet to expect rookies to perform well straight out of the gate. Due to this I would expect to see the Packers to have some issues with their passing offense early on in the season as Rodgers works on building chemistry with his young receivers. This means that Matt LaFleur will rely on his running back group to carry much of the offense’s production in the first half of the season. 

Loaded Defence

Luckily for the Packers, their defense looks to be stacked with talent from top to bottom. This allows them to be able to take a slight step back on the offensive side and still remain as one of the league’s top contenders for the Super Bowl. While star outside lineback Za’Darius Smith was lost to the Vikings in free agency, the Packers are already used to life without Smith who was injured for all but a couple games last year.

Young star cornerback Jaire Alexander is back from injury this year and will shore up the coverage unit. All-Pro linebacker De’Vondre Campbell also signed an extension with the team and will be joined in the starting unit by two first round draft picks out of Georgia. This Packers defense is going to cause headaches for every offense that they go up against.

The Packers might take a step back on offense this year but with LaFleur and Rodgers I think they can do enough to keep the chains moving and the scoreboard ticking over. Their stacked defence should make up for the talent lost on offense so I would expect Green Bay to impress again this regular season and win 11+ games.

Prediction: Green Bay Packers over 10.5 wins

Minnesota Vikings

2021 Record: 8-9

Division Odds: 5/2

Over/Under This Year: 9.5

Key Players: QB Kirk Cousins | WR Justin Jefferson | WR Adam Thielen

Changing Of The Guard

Times have changed in Minnesota. Longtime Vikings Head Coach Mike Zimmer was fired at the end of last season after a disappointing 8-9 record. While Zimmer is a highly respected coach in the league, the move seemed like a necessary one. The franchise has been stalling in recent years while never looking like a serious threat to make it to the Super Bowl since the embarrassing 38 – 7 NFC Championship game loss to the Eagles in 2018.

The common complaint with Zimmer and his coaching staff was the conservative nature that they had and a lack of willingness to trust quarterback Kirk Cousins to throw the ball. In previous seasons, the Vikings have leaned heavily on star RB Dalvin Cook to carry the brunt of the offensive workload.

Vikings Can Thrive In A Passing League

For as brilliant as Cook is, the NFL in 2022 is a passing league and when you have receivers of the calibre of Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen then you are shooting yourself in the foot by choosing to rely on the running game over the passing attack.

Not Far Away From Contention

New Head Coach Kevin O’Connell is the man tasked with turning this Vikings team into serious Super Bowl contenders once again. This may sound like a tall task for a team that finished last season with an 8-9 record but Minnesota is not as far away as that record might suggest. Of their nine losses last season, five of those came by four points or less.

This is a team that has enough talent on offense to keep up with any team. O’Connell himself appears to be the right man for the job as he is a product of the Super Bowl winning coach Sean McVay’s coaching staff. Cousins is in fact familiar with the scheme that O’Connell will bring to Minnesota as he played in a similar scheme under Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay when they were coordinators in Washington.

Prediction: Minnesota Vikings over 9.5 wins

NFC North Predictions and Best Bets

NFC North Division Champions: Minnesota Vikings @ 5/2

Both the Lions and Bears have too little talent on their roster to compete for the division title so I would expect this to be a two horse race between the Packers and Vikings. The Packers are the heavy favourites @ 8/15 to win the division which makes sense given their recent dominance in the NFC North and the fact that reigning back-to-back MVP Aaron Rodgers is playing for them. Despite this, there are too many question marks surrounding the team this year to justify backing them at such short odds.

The best value bet to win the division has to be the Minnesota Vikings at odds of 5/2. The Vikings have a potent passing attack and were victim to quite a few close losses last year. We can expect them to rely more on their passing attack this year under new Head Coach Kevin O’Connell and if some of those close losses can turn into close wins then the Vikings could find themselves on top of the division at the end of the regular season.

NFC North Straight Forecast: 1st Packers, 2nd Vikings @ 11/8

The straight forecast market that Boylesports has on offer gives bettors some very impressive potential returns. If you feel strongly about the Packers winning the division but don’t fancy the short odds you could look to the straight forecast market for a more prosperous return. 11/8 odds on the Packers winning the division and being followed by the Vikings in second place is very attractive in a division that appears to be a two horse race.

Regular Season Win Total: Minnesota Vikings Over 9.5 @ Evens

As mentioned earlier, the NFL is a passing league in 2022 and the Minnesota Vikings have one of the most explosive offenses in the league. They are led by an above average quarterback in Kirk Cousins and two all-star wide receivers in Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen who will put fear into every defense they face.

When they need to run the ball to close a game out then they also have one of the best running backs in the league at their disposal in Dalvin Cook. If this team can get their defense to perform to an average level then I expect them to ease past this win total of 9.5.

Divisional Wins: Green Bay Packers over 4.5 Divisional Wins @ 5/4

The Packers have been dominant against their NFC North opponents in recent seasons and it is hard to envision that changing this year. The Lions and Bears have some of the least talented rosters in the league heading into this season so we can expect the Packers to take advantage of their undermatched divisional foes once again in 2022.

A sweep of both the Lions and Bears would leave the Packers needing to split their two games against Minnesota 1-1 to reach the 5 divisional win mark. I expect this to be what happens and the Packers go 5-1 in the division this year for another dominant year within the division.

Remember to always gamble responsibly.