2023 NFL MVP Odds & Betting Favorites
In this post we take a look at the NFL MVP odds for the 2023 season and analyze the chances of the betting favorites.
NFL MVP Odds
| 2023 NFL MVP Odds | ||
| Player | Odds | Chance |
| Patrick Mahomes | +350 | 22.2% |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +500 | 16.7% |
| Jalen Hurts | +600 | 14.3% |
| Josh Allen | +700 | 12.5% |
| Brock Purdy | +700 | 12.5% |
| Justin Herbert | +1400 | 6.7% |
| Christian McCaffrey | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Trevor Lawrence | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Lamar Jackson | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Jared Goff | +3000 | 3.2% |
| Dak Prescott | +4000 | 2.4% |
| Joe Burrow | +4000 | 2.4% |
| Deshaun Watson | +5000 | 2% |
| Geno Smith | +7500 | 1.3% |
| Matthew Stafford | +7500 | 1.3% |
| Tyreek Hill | +7500 | 1.3% |
| Jordan Love | +10000 | 1% |
NFL MVP Betting Favorites
Patrick Mahomes – NFL MVP Favorite
Patrick Mahomes is the current NFL MVP favorite at odds of +350 after Week 5 of the 2023 NFL season.
The Case For Mahomes To Win MVP
Patrick Mahomes is in prime position to win his third MVP award and defend his title from last year. The Kansas City signal caller is the undisputed best quarterback in football and once again has his team in position to secure the AFC number one seed after a 4-1 start to the season.
The number one seed is crucial in this conversation too. In 8 of the last 10 seasons the MVP has been won by a quarterback whose team finished number one seed in their conference at the end of the regular season. The two years the MVP wasn’t won by a quarterback of a number one seed? Those years it was won by a QB on a number 2 seed in their conference.
With the 49ers and Brock Purdy the favorites to secure the NFC number one seed Mahomes is a justified favorite to be crowned MVP once again in 2023.
The Case Against Mahomes
Voter fatigue is the big factor working against Mahomes’ chances of winning his second straight MVP. It might sound silly but voter fatigue, the idea that voters prefer newer candidates, is a real thing. So if one of the other QBs can make the MVP a close race between themselves and the Chiefs QB then there is a good chance that voters will lean towards the other guy.
Another factor working against Mahomes is that he could become a victim to his own previous standards of play. He’s played the quarterback position arguably at a higher level than anyone else before him. That means that even if he is the best player in the league this year but doesn’t play to the level that we’ve seen from him in other MVP years voters might be underwhelmed.
Tua Tagovailoa
The second favorite to be crowned MVP of the 2023 regular season is Tua Tagovailoa who is +500 in the MVP odds.
The Case For Tua To Win MVP
The Dolphins quarterback has had an incredible start to the season in a Miami offense that possesses scary speed. WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are two of the fastest receivers in the league while the same can also be said about RBs De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert who rank near the top of their position group in terms of speed.
Tua has benefited greatly from being in a great offensive situation but he is also a big reason for the success of this offense. Few quarterbacks can get rid of the ball quicker than Tagovailoa while also putting it right where it needs to be.
After week 5 Tua leads the league in passing yards per game at a crazy 322.8 yards per game. That puts him on pace to break Peyton Manning’s 5,477 passing yards in a season record, although with the benefit of one extra game given the league’s new 17-game schedule.
If the former Alabama star can maintain this pace and break that passing yards record, along with securing at least the number two seed in the AFC, he has every chance of securing the NFL MVP award.
The Case Against Tua Winning MVP
The case against Tua is the system that he is in. Dolphins Head Coach Mike McDaniel is the most highly thought of offensive mind in the game at the moment (bar maybe his former mentor Kyle Shanahan). Tua had little success in the league before McDaniel arrived in Miami.
Tuanon (Tua’s fanbase) will tell you that is because of the circumstances around him previous to McDaniel. However, critics will say that McDaniel deserves more credit for the success of this offense than Tagovailoa due to his innovative play designs and playcalling. There is also the fact that Tua has arguably the best supporting cast of skill position players with WR Tyreek Hill, WR Jaylen Waddle along with RBs Raheem Mostert and rookie sensation De’Von Achane.
Essentially the argument is this: Tua is a product of the McDaniel system and incredible talent around him. He is executing the offense very well but if he were replaced by another QB there wouldn’t be a massive drop off.
Jalen Hurts
The third favorite for the 2023 NFL MVP award is Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts who comes in at odds of +600.
The Case For Hurts To Win MVP
The Eagles are the second favorite to be the #1 seed in the NFC behind the 49ers. If Philadelphia can finish atop the conference, or even with the #2 seed, at the end of the regular season then Hurts has a great chance of being crowned AP NFL MVP.
Hurts had his breakout season in 2022 where he accounted for 4,461 total yards in just 15 games.
While Hurts is seen as being a beneficiary of a loaded roster, the general consensus is that Brock Purdy, QB of the NFC #1 seed favorite 49ers, is much more of a beneficiary of his surroundings. Hurts, who is on pace for a little under 5,000 total yards, is the Eagles offensive system in the sense that he is arguably the only quarterback in the league who can run the Eagles offense the way it is currently being run. As a result, he will get a lot more credit from voters than his closest NFC MVP rival Brock Purdy (more on him in a minute).
The Case Against Hurts Winning MVP
There are some compelling arguments against Jalen Hurts winning this year’s MVP award. Arguments that suggest to me that there is little value in betting on him at his current price of +600.
First argument, the Eagles have a tough schedule the rest of the way. They have to play the Dolphins, the Cowboys twice, at the Chiefs, the Bills, the 49ers, and at the Seahawks. Those are seven tough games which could leave a dent in their record and as subsequently dent Hurts’ MVP chances.
The second argument against Hurts is the injury risk with his play style. The 4th-year quarterback is averaging 11 rush attempts per game. 11! That’s the same amount that he averaged last season. And guess what happened last season? He got injured. On that occasion it was a sprained shoulder where he only ended up missing two games (which was still enough missed games to dash his MVP hopes) but what’s to say this season he won’t suffer a more serious injury with the risk he is exposing himself to game after game.
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