AFC North Betting Preview – 4 Best Bets And A Surprise Contender
The AFC North is one of the toughest divisions to call in the NFL this year. The division is home to the Super Bowl runner up Cincinnati Bengals and a host of young talented quarterbacks including Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson.
AFC North Betting Odds
Cincinnati Bengals
2021 Record: 10-7
Division Odds: 13/8
Over/Under This Season: 9.5
Key Players: QB Joe Burrow | WR Ja’Marr Chase | DE Trey Hendrickson
Super Bowl Hangover?
The Bengals come into this season after a fantastic playoff run last season which saw them lead the Rams in the Super Bowl with less than two minutes to play. The team was so close to securing the biggest prize of all and it is hard to know how they will bounce back from the disappointment of that Super Bowl loss. This team is so young that I think they will be able to use the loss to motivate them to get back to the big game in February once again this season.
Recipe For Offensive Success: Star QB And Talented Receivers
Former #1 overall pick Joe Burrow showed last year that he can fulfil his potential and become a star in the league. Burrow has established himself as one of the top 10 QBs in the league and will give the Bengals a chance in every game they play.
Burrow is also surrounded by one of the best wide receiver groups in the NFL. Ja’Marr Chase is the star receiver who brings an explosive element to the offense and can beat any defender in one-on-one coverage. Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are the other two starting receivers who have the talent to take full advantage when defences focus in on Chase.
Improved Offensive Line
The Bengals bolstered their offensive line in the offseason with the addition of Alex Cappa and Ted Karras. These upgrades on the offensive line should give Joe Burrow more time to operate and in theory should make this offense even better than last season.
Talented Defence
On the defensive side of the ball, DE Trey Hendrickson and Safety Jessie Bates III headline what is a talented group of players. The defence performed well in last years playoffs. I would expect them to build upon those performances and potentially become a top 10 defence in the NFL this year.
Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals Over 9.5 Wins
Cleveland Browns
2021 Record: 8-9
Division Odds: 7/2
Over/Under This Season: 8.5
Key Players: RB Nick Chubb | DE Myles Garrett | QB Jacoby Brissett
Addition of Controversial Elite QB Watson
The Browns find themselves in an interesting position after an eventful offseason which saw them sign controversial QB Deshaun Watson to the largest guaranteed contract in NFL history. Watson brings a lot of baggage and moral questions to the franchise due to the nature of the ongoing court cases he is fighting in the public eye.
Signing Watson was a gamble for Cleveland and they now have a star quarterback at the helm. Part of the decision to sign Watson came with the knowledge that he could be suspended. The NFL recently issued him an 11 game suspension for alleged breaches of the league’s CBA.
Offence Centred Around The Running Game
Watson’s suspension means that Cleveland will look to rely on their running game early in the season. Thankfully for the Browns they have two top running backs in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt who will have to make up for a subpar passing game. The offensive line is among the best in the NFL so this should give Cleveland a chance to control the clock and keep the ball moving down the field.
Subpar Passing Attack
Backup QB Jacoby Brissett is towards the bottom third of the league’s QBs when it comes to ability and he is not in a favourable situation with Celveland’s poor receiving group. Amari Cooper was added in the offseason which will give Brissett at least one decent receiver to target but the group as a whole is one of the very worst in the league.
A Defence Under Pressure?
Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward are the stars of a talented Cleveland defence. Garrett is one of the best defensive players in the league and will cause nightmares for opposing quarterbacks. This defence is going to be tested a lot during the season as Cleveland’s offense will struggle to put up a lot of points and it will be up to the defence at times to hold firm and keep them in games.
Prediction: Cleveland Browns Under 8.5 Wins
Baltimore Ravens
2021 Record: 8-9
Division Odds: 13/8
Over/Under This Season: 9.5
Key Players: QB Lamar Jackson | TE Mark Andrews | CB Marlon Humphrey
Action Jackson
In the last two seasons QB Lamar Jackson has failed to reach the heights of his MVP season in 2019. The Ravens have one of the most unique offenses in the NFL which has been tailored to amplify Jackson’s strengths. His strengths are rushing with the ball and passing inside the numbers towards the middle of the field.
Talented TE Andrews
Mark Andrews is one of the best Tight Ends in the league and he will once again be a trusty target for Lamar. Unfortunately for the Ravens they have little receiving talent apart from Andrews. WR Rashod Bateman is going into his second year and showed signs of promise in his rookie year. The loss of Marquise Brown will have a negative impact on the Ravens passing game. His absence makes the current receiving group among the worst in the league.
Dobbins Return Boosts Running Game
Running back J.K. Dobbins should provide an added element of explosion with his return from an ACL injury giving a massive boost to the team’s running game.
Defence Can Dominate
On the defensive side of the ball the Ravens have a lot of talent. Cornerback Marlon Humphrey will lockdown most receivers he comes up against while DT Calais Campbell is a force that will make running the balls on the Ravens a difficult task.
If last years first round draft pick Odafe Oweh can take a step forward this year then this Ravens defense could cause nightmares for opposing offenses.
Lamar Figured Out?
I think the Ravens talented defensive unit will not be enough to overcome their offensive deficiencies. Jackson was electric when he burst on to the scene in 2019 with a unique offense but it is a different story three years later. The league has figured out how to slow down the offense and Jackson himself.
Prediction: Baltimore Ravens Under 9.5 Wins
Pittsburgh Steelers
2021 Record: 9-7-1
Division Odds: 8/1
Over/Under This Season: 7.5
Key Players: LB T.J. Watt | DE Cameron Heyward | FS Minkah Fitzpatrick
Intriguing QB Battle
The big question surrounding the Steelers heading into this season is the quarterback position. The team added Mitchell Trubisky, former #2 overall pick, in the offseason.
The thought was that he would be the starter for the 2022 season. In their efforts to find a franchise QB, the Steelers were not content to stop at just a free agent addition. In the first round of the draft Pittsburgh selected Kenny Pickett with their #20 overall pick.
With Trubisky you know what you’re getting, he can be an ok starting quarterback with a good supporting cast around him. Pickett on the other hand is more of a wildcard. I would expect the Steelers to begin the season with Trubisky as starter but I wouldn’t be surprised if Pickett is starting games before week 10.
Potential QB Trade?
If the quarterbacks on the Steelers roster don’t perform well then don’t rule out a potential trade for Jimmy Garoppolo. The Steelers just need a solid level of play from the quarterback position for them to be contenders given how good their defence is.
Offensive Supporting Cast
The offensive line isn’t the worst in the league but it is definitely below average. Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool lead a talented receiving group that can give the QB options in the passing game. RB Najee Harris is also an immense talent who will help the team move the chains and control time of possession.
Gamewrecking Defence
The Steelers have a dominant defensive front with the likes of T.J. Watt and Cam Heyward who will cause trouble for every offensive line and QB they play against. Watt could be in contention for DPOY again this year. If he plays to the level that we know he can and the rest of the Defence can feed off of his gamewrecking abilities then the Steelers could cause a big surprise this season.
A Surprise AFC North Contender?
The talented offensive supporting cast should put the team in a position where the Steelers starting QB, whoever that is, only needs to manage the game to lead the team to a successful season. I trust long-time Head Coach Mike Tomlin to get the very most out of this Steelers team like he so often does and put his team in a position to be in the mix for a division title.
Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers Over 7.5 Wins
AFC North Best Bets
Cincinnati Bengals To Win The AFC North @ 13/8
The Bengals not only have the best quarterback in the division but they also have the best receiving group and are solid at every other position. Make no mistake about it, this is the best team in the division and they have only improved this offseason since their Super Bowl appearance. The odds here of 13/8 are just too good to pass up.
Bengals and Steelers to Finish Top Two in AFC North @ 12/1
The Steelers have all the tools needed to be one of the surprise teams in the NFL this year. Their dominant defence should give them a chance in every game of keeping it close and the offence has plenty of talent at the TE, WR and RB position groups. This means that competent quarterback play will give this team a great chance of outperforming expectations and challenging for a top two spot in the division. The odds here of 12/1 could be very rewarding for punters.
Pittsburgh Steelers To Make The Playoffs @11/4
The case for this is similar to that of the Steelers placing top two in the division mentioned above. I trust this defence to keep the Steelers in games with the talent they have on that side of the ball. They have talent at the offensive skill positions and I trust Mike Tomlin to put his quarterback in a position to succeed. Given the additional third wildcard spot these look like very generous odds that bettors can take advantage of.
Kenny Pickett To Win Offensive Rookie Of The Year @ 7/1
Pickett has already created a lot of buzz during training camp and preseason so there is a chance that he could steal the starting role from Mitch Trubisky from week one. If that doesn’t happen then we could still see Pickett start games early in the season. Why is that? The Steelers start the season with a very tough schedule.
Their first three games include two away divisional games and a clash with the Patriots on top of that. There is every chance that poor performances in these games from Trubisky could clear the way for Pickett to get some playing time. Once on the field I think that Pickett has the tools to thrive in this offence. The one weakness in the offence is the O-Line. Pickett is a mobile QB so he has the ability to create positive plays when the pocket breaks down.
Once again, I trust Tomlin to put Pickett in a position to succeed. This is typically an award that is dominated by QBs and Pickett is in a better position than any other rookie quarterback to succeed this year.
Remember to always gamble responsibly.
