AFC East Betting Preview – 4 Best Bets Including 20/1 Sack Leader
The last couple seasons have seen a changing of the guard in the AFC East. The Patriots had dominated this division for over two decades but all-time great quarterback Tom Brady’s departure in 2020 coincided with the Buffalo Bills becoming one of the NFL’s top teams.
AFC East Division Odds
Buffalo Bills
2021 Record: 11-6
Division Odds: 4/9
Over/Under This Season: 11.5
Key Players: QB Josh Allen | WR Stefon Diggs | CB Tre’Davious White
Allen Among League’s Best
The Super Bowl favourite Bills have Josh Allen at quarterback who is a top five player at his position. Allen was incredible in the playoffs last year. Despite losing to the Chiefs in the AFC Divisional round this team proved that they are ready to contend for the Lombardi Trophy. Allen is an excellent quarterback from the pocket but his ability to run with the football is what sets him apart from the rest of the QBs in the NFL. If he can’t beat you through the air he will beat you with his feet.
Elite Receiving Duo
Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis are the team’s two starting wide receivers. The two form an elite duo that defences will struggle to cover down field. Diggs in particular can be unguardable when he is at his best.
Dawson Knox at TE is a close friend of Allen and offers a big body for the QB to target in the red zone.
Pass Happy Offence
Starting RB Devin Singletary is a solid running back but this team is very pass heavy so I wouldn’t expect to see him get too many carries.
O-Line Gives Cause For Concern
A potential area of weakness for the Bills is their offensive line. While the line isn’t terrible it definitely ranks towards the bottom half of the league. Josh Allen’s ability to take off and run with the football will mitigate the impact of poor O-Line play to a degree but a good passing game succeeds from the pocket first and foremost.
Miller Can Push Team To New Heights
The Bills have one of the most talented defensive lines in the NFL. The addition of superstar Von Miller is going to take this defence from good to great. Opposing offensive lines and QBs are going to struggle against the talent the Bills have in this unit.
Weak Linebacker Group
The linebacker unit for the Bills is not particularly strong and could be taken advantage of by opposing offences . Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds are solid against the run but can struggle in coverage.
Suspect Cornerbacks
At cornerback the Bills will sorely miss star player Tre’Davious White who will miss the first month of the season at least as he continues to recover from a torn ACL suffered last season. Opposing offences can have a lot of success in the short passing game against this Bills cornerback and linebacker group.
On the plus side for Buffalo, they have an elite safety combination. Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer make passing the ball deep down the field a very difficult task.
Super Bowl Bound?
Buffalo are the Super Bowl favourites and they will be one of the best teams in the league this year but they do have weaknesses, like their O-Line and CB group, that can be exploited by other teams. In the end, an elite QB, WR group and defensive line should be good enough to see them finish the season as one of the top two teams in the AFC.
Prediction: Bills Over 11.5 wins
Miami Dolphins
2021 Record: 9-8
Division Odds: 4/1
Over/Under This Season: 9.5
Key Players: WR Tyreek Hill | QB Tua Tagovailoa | CB Xavien Howard
Questions At QB
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been the talk of the offseason around Miami. Tua was drafted #5 overall a couple seasons ago by the Dolphins but has failed to live up to the expectations that came with his draft pedigree as of yet. Injuries haven’t helped Tua reach his potential but when he has been on the field he also hasn’t blown us away with his performances.
Speed, Speed And More Speed
The Dolphins made a massive splash during the offseason when they traded for Tyreek Hill who is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. His nickname is ‘Cheetah’ because of his elite speed and this speed can stretch the defence and create space underneath for the other pass catchers to operate in.
Not only do the Dolphins have a speedster in Hill but they also have second year receiver Jaylen Waddle who is among the fastest players in the league too. Cedrick Wilson and Mike Gesicki are the other starting pass catchers who altogether form one of the best receiving groups in the league.
Edmonds Offers Dynamic Ability
Chase Edmonds is projected to start at running back and Edmonds showed in Arizona that he can be a dynamic player and make a positive impact in both the running and passing game.
Weak Links On O-Line
The team has some weak links on their offensive line. Offensive Guard Liam Eichenberg and Tackle Austin Jackson are coming off very poor seasons and can be taken advantage of by opposing pass rushers. The other three starting linemen should hold up well in pass protection.
D-Line Can Create Pressure
The Dolphins are Incredibly strong along the defensive line. This is easily a top five unit in the league and will cause issues for opposing offences in the passing and running game. Free agent acquisition Melvin Ingram will be racking up plenty of sacks and QB hits throughout the season.
Mediocre Linebacking Group
The linebackers on the roster are not the most talented and can be exploited in the passing game. Fortunately for them, the elite defensive line in front of them should make their lives much easier.
Solid Secondary
The secondary is headlined by top CB Xavien Howard and safety Jevon Holland. This group of defensive backs rank in the top half of the league so they should be able to hold up well against opposing passing offences.
Season Expectations
The Dolphins have a lot of talent across the roster and new coach Mike McDaniel is a highly regarded offensive play caller. However, there will likely be some growing pains for the first year head coach as he learns his craft. Bad quarterback play combined with a weak offensive line is a recipe for disaster in the NFL so I think this will hold the Dolphins back in 2022 despite the obvious talent that is on the roster.
Prediction: Dolphins Under 9.5 Wins
New York Jets
2021 Record: 4-13
Division Odds: 22/1
Over/Under This Season: 5.5
Key Players: DT Quinnen Williams | QB Zach Wilson | DE Carl Lawson
Pressure On Young QB Wilson
Zach Wilson goes into his second year after a disappointing rookie season where he ranked as one of the worst quarterbacks in the league. If the franchise are to stick with Wilson long term then he needs to show signs that he can be a top QB this season. Wilson was injured during preseason but is expected to be in contention to start by week one.
Solid Supporting Cast On Offence
The Jets have a solid group of wide receivers for Wilson to target in the passing game. Elijah Moore is a tantalising prospect and he could take a leap in his second year. Corey Davis is a decent outside receiver and Braxton Berrios is a good enough route runner to get open from the slot.
At the running back position third-round rookie Breece Hall is expected to be the starter. Hall has elite speed and elusiveness so he can make things happen in the running game.
O-Line Can Keep Wilson Clean
The offensive line suffered a devastating blow when young Tackle Mekhi Becton was confirmed to be out for the season after he suffered a serious knee injury. Despite the loss of Becton, there are solid players across the entire O-Line. The unit has the potential to be one of the ten best in the league so QB Wilson should have time to stand in the pocket and throw the ball downfield.
Williams Can Fulfil Potential
The defensive line has plenty of talent and the ability to really get after the quarterback. Quinnen Williams was a top five draft pick a couple years ago and was projected by analysts to be a dominant force in the league. Williams hasn’t lived up to this potential just yet but the raw talent is there. If he puts it altogether this season he can be one of the league’s best defensive linemen.
The linebacker position is a weak spot for the Jets. C.J. Mosley was signed in free agency in 2019 and was expected to make a massive impact on the defence. Mosley has not played to the level that we saw before in Baltimore and the rest of the team’s linebackers haven’t been impressive either.
Improved Secondary
The Jets made key additions to bolster their secondary during the offseason. Chief among these additions is #4 overall draft pick Sauce Gardner. Jordan Whitehead was another big acquisition during the offseason. The former Buccaneer Safety will instantly improve this Jets secondary.
Jets Can Surpass Expectations
There is talent on this roster and Head Coach Robert Saleh is highly regarded among his peers so I have an optimistic outlook on what this team can achieve in 2022. Zach Wilson should be in a position to succeed this season so I expect the Jets to surprise many people this year and win seven or eight games.
Prediction: Jets Over 5.5 Wins
New England Patriots
2021 Record: 10-7
Division Odds: 9/2
Over/Under This Season: 8.5
Key Players: LB Matthew Judon | FS Devin McCourty | QB Mac Jones
Franchise Quarterback?
QB Mac Jones is going into his second season after what was a very promising rookie season. If Jones continues on his upward trajectory this year then the New England Patriots could have an elite quarterback on their hands.
This offseason has been strange in New England. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels left to become the head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders. For some reason McDaniels has not been replaced directly as coach Bill Belichick has opted to not officially name an offensive coordinator, the only team in the NFL to do so. This change in coordinator, or lack thereof, could have a detrimental effect on Jones.
Poor Early Returns On Investment In Pass Catchers
The early returns on the massive free agency investment in the pass catching group have not been great. The two starting wide receivers will by no means strike fear into opposing defences. Jakobi Meyers is a good receiver but he is really a #2 receiver who is being forced to play as a #1.
The team acquired WR DeVante Parker from the division rival Dolphins in the offseason who should be a boost to the receiving group. Parker is a good receiver but his career has been on a downward arc since his peak in 2019.
Going into last season it looked like New England had the best tight end pair in the league after their free agent additions of Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. Henry and Smith didn’t live up to expectations last year but I expect both to rebound this year and play to the level we have seen them at before.
Power Running Game
At running back, New England has Damien Harris who graded as one of the best backs in the league last season. He brings a power element to the running game while backup RB Rhamondre Stevenson could start for a lot of teams.
Top 10 O-Line
The offensive line is easily a top ten unit in the league with no weak links. The O-Line can protect Mac in the passing game while also creating large running lanes for the running backs.
Defensive Line Might Struggle
The defensive line looks like it could be an area of weakness. Lawrence Guy was once one of the best Defensive Tackles in the league but his performances have been trending downhill in recent seasons. OLB Matthew Judon is a bright spark who can really pressure the quarterback. The linebacker group is about league average and should hold up ok against both the run and the pass.
Talented Safety Combination
The pass defence looks like it might take a step back this season after losing elite CB J.C. Jackson this offseason. However, their safety duo of Devin McCourty and Kyle Dugger is one of the best in the NFL and should make it difficult for offences to have success throwing the ball deep.
Wildcard Contenders
The Patriots have had a bad preseason where they finished 1-2. On top of this, the rumours are that the starting offence has played poorly in training camp. We have seen shaky starts to the season from previous Patriots teams and on those occasions they usually went on to compete in Super Bowls and AFC Championship games. This team is not of that calibre but I still expect them to exceed expectations and push for a wildcard spot.
Prediction: Patriots Over 8.5 wins
AFC East Best Bets
AFC East Straight Forecast: Bills 1st, Patriots 2nd @ 9/4
The Bills are Super Bowl favourites this year and within the division they are clearly the best team. On the other extreme we have the New York Jets who are improved from last year but still clearly the worst team in the division. This leaves us with an interesting battle for the second spot in the AFC East between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins.
Both rosters are quite similar in terms of talent levels. However, the Patriots have the clear advantage in two key spots. At QB, Mac Jones has been a much better quarterback in the NFL than Tua Tagovailoa. New England also has a clear advantage at Head Coach with all-time great Bill Belichick for the Patriots compared to unproven first year coach Mike McDaniel at the helm for Miami.
Patriots Over 8.5 Regular Season Wins @ 5/6
I think that 8.5 regular season wins is a low bar for the Patriots to clear. In the last twenty years Bill Belichick has only once been in charge of a team that has won less than eight games.
This team is not the most talented that Belichick has ever had but there’s enough quality there to lead them to a winning season. If Mac Jones can perform as well as he did last year then this Patriots team can win nine or more games with relative ease.
Gabriel Davis Over 7.5 Receiving TDs @ 10/11
Gabriel Davis of the Bills ranked as one of the best receivers in the league last year and capped it off with a historic four touchdown performance in a playoff game against the Chiefs. Despite his incredible performances last year Davis is still the #2 receiver behind Stefon Diggs.
The attention that Diggs receives from opposing defences will open up space for Davis to thrive in and I can see him easily scoring more than eight TDs this season.
Von Miller To Have Most Regular Season Sacks @ 20/1
With Miller now on the Bills as part of a strong defensive line he should have a great chance to contend for this award. The Bills are going to be leading in most games they play this season which will mean that their opponents will be passing the ball a lot to keep up with them. This will give Miller plenty of chances to rush the passer in one-on-one situations and rack up a lot of sacks.
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