What Does Moneyline Betting Mean – All You Need To Know
What does moneyline betting mean? What is a moneyline bet? These are common questions among people who are new to sports betting.
If you watch sports, you might often hear phrases like ‘Team A are -150 favorites on the moneyline for tonight’s game’ or ‘Team B are +300 underdogs on the moneyline going into the game today’.
These sports and sports betting terms can be confusing at first, but this article is going to explain in an easy-to-understand way what all these terms mean so you don’t have to feel confused anymore.
1. Moneyline Bet Definition
A moneyline bet is the simplest type of bet in sports betting. It is a bet where you try to predict what the outcome of a game will be. In other words, you pick which team will win the game.
What Is NFL Moneyline Betting? Explained
Let’s look at the upcoming NFL preseason game between the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams to help illustrate simply what a moneyline bet is.
With NFL moneyline bets there are two possible outcomes that a bettor can wager on. Let’s stick with the Bills @ Rams game to explain this.
As a bettor you can either bet on the Bills to win on the moneyline (commonly shortened to ML) at odds of -134, or alternatively you can bet on the Rams to win on the ML at odds of +114. So the two possible outcomes are 1. the Bills winning or 2. the Rams winning.
If you bet on the Bills ML and the Bills win the game then your moneyline bet is a winner. However, if the Rams win the game then your Bills ML bet would lose.
The opposite also applies of course. If you bet on the Rams and they win the game then you have a winning moneyline bet. If the Rams lose to the bills then your moneyline bet is a losing one.
2. How To Calculate The Return From A Moneyline Bet
On almost every betting website or app you will be able to calculate the return from a bet very easily. If you click/tap on the selection you are thinking about making and enter the stake you want to bet then the app/website will show you what your payout would be.
In the below example, I am wondering what the return will be if I bet on the Bills to win the game.
In this case I can see that if I bet $10 on the Bills to win then I could win $7.46. So that means my total payout if the Bills win would be $17.46.
If I want to bet on the Rams to win the game I can see below that a $10 wager would win me $11.40. So once again we add the winnings to the original wager which would give me a total return of $21.40 from a $10 bet.
The Moneyline Payout Formula
In most cases, the option above of using your sports betting website or app of choice to calculate the return will be the most convenient way of doing so. If you don’t have that option available to you, or if you are just curious to see the mathematics behind how the return is calculated then this next part is for you.
Formula For Plus Moneyline Odds
The formula used is slightly different when calculating the return of a ML bet for plus odds and for negative odds.
For plus odds the formula is:
Potential Winnings = Stake x (Odds/100)
So for the Rams ML at odds of +114 we calculate the potential winnings from a $10 bet like so:
Potential Winnings = $10 x (114/100)
Potential Winnings = $10 x 1.14
Potential Winnings = $11.40
Potential Payout/Return = Potential Winnings + Bet Stake
Potential Payout/Return = $11.40 + $10
Potential Payout/Return = $21.40
This matches with the return calculated by the sports betting website below.
Formula For Negative Moneyline Odds
Now for the formula to calculate the potential winnings when there are negative moneyline odds. We will use the Bills here to show how the winnings are calculated.
For negative odds the formula is:
Potential Winnings = Stake x (Odds/100)
Note: With negative odds remember to ignore the minus sign when calculating the potential payout.
For the Bills ML odds of -134 we will calculate the return for a $10 bet like so:
Potential Winnings = $10 / (134/100)
Potential Winnings = $10 / 1.34
Potential Winnings = $7.46
Potential Payout/Return = Potential winnings + Bet Stake
Potential Payout/Return = $7.46 + $10
Potential Payout/Return = $17.46
Once again we can see this calculation confirmed by the sportsbook’s potential payout below.
3. What Is A Moneyline Favorite?
In the NFL and all other sports you will hear the term ‘favorite’ thrown around a lot. So what does it mean? The moneyline favorite is the team or person that are the most likely to win a match based on the odds offered by the sportsbooks.
In other words, a favorite is the team or person that offers the lowest total potential return per $1 wagered on them. With the example of the Bills @ Rams game we can tell that the Bills are the favorite because the potential return for a $10 bet is less for them than it is for the Rams.
The reason that the return is less is because the sportsbooks believe that the Bills are more likely to win the game. Sportsbooks use their sports traders, who are very knowledgeable about the sports they offer odds on, to determine the probability of each team winning based on a number of relevant factors such as previous team performances, talent of players on each team, injury news etc.
4. What Is A Moneyline Underdog?
Underdog is a common term that you will hear in both general sports discussion and even more often in sports betting. In sports, an underdog is a team or person that are unlikely to win the match or competition that they are competing in.
An underdog will almost always have + odds. The bigger the number of their + odds means the more unlikely they are to win. It also means there is a bigger potential payout if they do win.
Using the Bills @ Rams game as an example again, there are a couple of ways that we can easily tell that the Rams are the underdogs. First look at the + sign beside their moneyline odds. As mentioned earlier, this + sign is the telltale indicator that the Rams are underdogs for this game.
Another way to tell is just to compare the potential payout from the same bet amount on each team. Below we can see that a $10 bet on the Rams has a greater potential winnings than the same bet amount on the Bills. So that is another way we can use to figure out that the Rams are the underdogs for this game.
5. Is It Better To Bet The Moneyline Or The Spread/Handicap?
The quick answer is; it depends. The idea of the spread is that it is the great equalizer between teams. In theory, betting the spread gives you a 50/50 chance of your bet being a winner.
The way that the spread works is that the underdog in a game is given a certain amount of points head start to level the playing field between the two teams. The bigger the gap in quality between each team the more points that the underdog will be given to make up the difference in ability between the teams.
In the below example, the sportsbooks believe that there is a big difference in the ability of both teams. The Steelers are considered to be a much worse team than the Bengals so they are given a +6.5 head start to equalize the difference in quality between the teams.
If you bet the spread then your potential winnings will always be slightly less than your bet stake. In other words, your potential payout will always be slightly less than double your stake. This might seem unfair at first because it is supposed to be a 50/50 proposition so a ‘fair’ return would be double your bet stake.
The slight difference is called the ‘vig’ or ‘juice’, basically this is the cut that a sportsbook takes for accepting your bet. It’s essentially their service charge for the costs that go into running a sportsbook such as staff wages, maintenance costs and of course maintaining a profitable business also.
When Should I Bet The Spread?
There are a couple reasons that a bettor might want to bet the spread as opposed to the moneyline. First of all, you might want to bet the spread when you feel like a favorite is going to win by more points than whatever the number of the spread is for that game.
The beauty of the spread in this case is that it gives a bettor a good payout, almost doubling their stake, if the favorite that they pick can win by more than the spread. It solves the problem of when a bettor wants to bet on a favorite but the moneyline odds give a very low potential payout.
The other reason you might want to bet the spread is when you feel like an underdog is going to keep the game closer than what the number of the spread is. There are many occasions when a bettor might feel confident about how an underdog is going to perform in a game. However, they are not convinced that the underdog will win the game outright, this is a perfect time to bet the spread instead of the moneyline.
When Should I Bet The Moneyline?
There are also times when it might make sense to bet the moneyline instead of the spread. If you feel confident about an underdog winning a game outright then this is a good time to bet the moneyline as the potential payout would be quite rewarding.
Another reason that you might want to bet the moneyline is when you feel very confident about a favorite winning a game but you’re not sure if they will win by enough points to cover the spread. In these cases, potential winnings can be quite small when compared to how much you would be staking so you have to weigh up the risk of what you could lose versus the reward of what you could gain.
6. What Happens If The Match Ends In A Tie/Draw?
In the NFL it is highly unlikely that a game will end in a tie. In fact, the chances of an NFL game ending in a tie are about 0.2%. Source. However, that does beg the question; what happens to my moneyline bet in the unlikely event of a tie game? If the game ends in a tie after overtime then you will be fully refunded your stake.
It is important to remember that this only applies to NFL regular and preseason games when the score is tied after overtime. NFL Playoff games cannot end in a tie as overtime will be played until there is a winner.
If a game is tied after the 4th quarter but one team wins the game in overtime then moneyline bets on that team will be winners. If the team you bet on loses in overtime then your bet will be a loser.
Remember to always gamble responsibly.
